"Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties. Truth was never put to the worse in a free and open encounter..."
~ Milton
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
~Benjamin Franklin

A Fistful of Euros
Andrew Tobias
Angry Liberal
Avedon Carol
Back to Iraq
Bad Attitudes
Bark Bark Woof Woof
Common Dreams
Counterterrorism Blog
Daniel Drezner
Eric Alterman
European Democracy
Hugo Schwyzer
In The Dark
Informed Comment
Jesus' General
Madelaine Kane
Mother Jones
Obsidian Wings
Off the Kuff
Opinions You Should Have
Pacific Views
Political Animal
Prometheus 6
Talking Points Memo
The American Street
The Common Ills
The Washington Note
War and Piece

Book Reviews
The Emerging Democratic Majority (Judis & Teixeira)
Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them (Franken)
Rush Limbaugh Is A Big Fat Idiot (Franken)
The True Believer (Hoffer)
Still Being Bushwhacked

All Book Reviews
Race, Gender, and Sexuality
You Got My Support. But.
Even Endangered Penguins Do It
Jesus Wept
Not Quite Right (with caveats)
Unforeseen Racism?

All Race, Gender, and Sexuality
Campaigns and Voting
Not News. Olds. And Truths.
November 4, 2008
Pay Attention

All Campaigns and Voting
Lecture Circuit
It Was 40 Years Ago Today
July 2, 1964
May 14-15, 1970
The Erotica of Bare Knees

All Lecture Circuit
The Liberal Media, At It Again
Fairly UNbalanced
What's this?

All Media
Big Brother
Shoulda' Guessed
Where did my country go?
You know what you never thought you'd read?
Not in his name
Sleight of Hand

All Big Brother
World O'Blog
It's Vocabulary Time!
They wrote it
Mighty-fine blogging
Other People Said....

All World O'Blog
Aimless Ranting
So, I'm thinking with half my brain
Do You Know Peter?
Long, Little Privacy Rant
My Takeaway
If I Had It To Do Over Again

All Aimless Ranting
November 24, 2013 - November 30, 2013
November 03, 2013 - November 09, 2013
December 09, 2012 - December 15, 2012
October 07, 2012 - October 13, 2012
May 06, 2012 - May 12, 2012

All Weekly Archives

Open Secrets
Political Wire Exit Polls
Polling Report

American Research Group
Center for Democracy and Technology
Center for Public Integrity
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Congressional Report Cards
Death Row Roll Call
Democracy Now
Economic Policy Institute
FairVote Colorado
Foreign Policy In Focus
Global Exchange
Human Rights Watch
Independent Judiciary
Institute on Money in State Politics
Institute for Public Accuracy
Lying in ponds
Media Reform
Media Transparency
Move On
One World
Open Democracy
Pew Research Center
Project Censored
Public Citizen Health Research Group
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Take Back The Media
The Urban Institute
WHO Outbreak News

Peevish for PDA

Blog Directory


Powered by Movable Type

Site Design by Sekimori

All content © 2002-2005 Anne Zook

November 10, 2010
Not News. Olds. And Truths.

Did you read this column?

Unsurprising revelations of a giant gap between what Republican voters say they want and what the public leadership of the Party says they're in favor of.

The column just reiterates three truths we already knew:

1. The majority of Republican voters have no idea what their Party's policies actually are.

2. The majority of Republican voters have no idea that every vote they cast is a vote against their own best interests.

3. The majority of Republican voters have no idea where their Party came from - what their roots are.

Just as the actual Democrats in this country are considerably more liberal* than the centrists holding the reins of power, the actual Republicans in this country are much more traditionally conservative than the wingnuts getting all the press coverage.

(Actually, the majority of people in this country are far more liberal than conservative in their actual beliefs. Some of them are just more conservatively liberal--they might want the same changes, but they want them more slowly or with a slightly different twist. How on earth did we all manage to let such unrepresentative representatives take over at the top?)


* Liberal. Not "progressive." Never be ashamed of being something good.

Posted by AnneZook at 04:40 PM


Most presidents' parties lose seats in midterm elections (why, I don't know, but there it is).
Bad economic results produce anti-majority votes.

Combining those two apparent facts explains 99% of the vote. Explaining those facts in the face of the disjunction between votes and intentions, on the other hand.....

Yeah, I don't get it either.

Posted by: Ahistoricality at November 10, 2010 09:42 PM

Well, you have to correct for reality before you can start working with the data. The gap between what people (Left and Right) want when they vote and what they get makes 'intent' when you try to talk about voting patterns--well, it's all but meaningless.

You know my 1/3 theory. 1/3 of the voters wouldn't vote Republican if it was the only choice available. 1/3 of the voters wouldn't vote Democrat if you held a gun to their heads. It's largely the middle third that decide elections. And I stand by my theory--they tend to vote "anti" more than "for."

They may be the most realistic of us all. They may be the only ones who actually understand how little difference there is between the two Parties any more.

Posted by: Anne at November 11, 2010 08:20 AM

Actually, it's more like a 1/6th theory. 1/6th of the population will reliably vote, and vote Democrat; 1/6th of the population will reliably vote, and vote Republican; 1/6th of the population, the most motivated of the remaining 2/3rds, will show up and vote their outrage, and the winner is determined by whether inconsistent voting Republicans are more outraged than inconsistent voting Democrats in any given cycle.

A lot of research about independent voters has convinced me that they actually constitute a very small share of the population compared to weak-voting Democrats and Republicans who only show up to vote when they're angry. So the "independent voter" in exit polls oscilates from cycle to cycle not because independents are changing their minds, but because different people are showing up.

Posted by: Ahistoricality at November 11, 2010 11:25 AM

Well, you know me - I'm more of a 'gross generalizations' kind of whiner. :)

I think your analysis is right, that "independent" voters look more flexible than they are (in terms of how they cast their votes) because it's not the same pool of voters being polled every time.

OTOH, I suspect that the actual percentage of "don't like my Party any more but would never cast a vote for the Evil of the Other Side" is somewhere between your estimate and mine.

Posted by: Anne at November 15, 2010 09:12 AM